Amid the sharp decline of Iran’s regional axis following the events of October 7, 2023, Tehran has been quietly orchestrating coordination meetings among its allied Shia forces, particularly in Iraq and Lebanon.

After Hezbollah rejected Lebanon’s new agreement with the United States to disarm the group, calling it “as if it never existed,” fears are growing that the move could spark an internal clash between the army and Hezbollah.

Lebanon faces escalating political tensions as PM Nawaf Salam pushes to centralize military authority and disarm Hezbollah, whose refusal and allied resistance deepen divisions and threaten the fragile ceasefire and national stability.

Lebanon’s Shiite duo—Hezbollah and Amal Movement—proved they still hold significant sway over their Shiite base, securing strong support in any electoral contest.

Lebanon's debate over Senate creation and electoral reforms is hindered by sectarian divisions and calls for Hezbollah's disarmament.